The Australian Bureau of Statistics has radically altered its evaluation of beef herd measurement in Australia, following adjustments in information assortment and methodology.
ABS’s revised estimate launched immediately for herd measurement on the finish of June final yr is 27.8 million head, whereas the Bureau’s earlier estimate was 24.4 million – a large distinction of three.4 million head, or 14 p.c.
The adjustment comes after widespread and sustained criticism over the past two years in regards to the accuracy and reliability of business and authorities beef herd estimates.
The changes to official herd measurement numbers as launched by ABS has vital implications for the meat business – not the least of which is calculations of carbon and methane manufacturing by beef animals over time.
The brand new estimate, primarily based on cattle inflows and outflows, is now inside 4 p.c of Meat & Livestock Australia’s personal nationwide 2023 herd estimates. There was recognition that the business couldn’t be processing 7-8 million head every year, primarily based on the sooner, extra reasonable herd sizes being reported.
The explanation for the change in measurement is the abandonment of beef producer surveys carried out beforehand (partly attributable to poor stakeholder responses), in favour of newer modelling methods and information sources.
As well as, ABS surveys beforehand didn’t have in mind cattle held by smaller producers whose ‘worth of agricultural operations’ (ie turnover) didn’t attain $40,000 a yr.
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ABS began ’modernising’ the way in which official agricultural statistics are produced to “higher assist Australian agriculture” in early 2023.
A key a part of that course of has been the event of partnerships with business and authorities to establish new information sources and develop new statistical strategies, the Bureau mentioned.
“This has lowered respondent burden on farmers, and created better consistency between present information sources which helps to construct belief within the statistics,” it mentioned.
The brand new estimates are nonetheless labelled as ‘experimental’, however solely as a result of the ABS intends to additional refine the strategy utilising further information sources and additional enter from business specialists.
ABS’s revised estimates of a herd of 27.8 million beef cattle on holding at 30 June 2023, represents an a rise of 4.6pc from an adjusted determine for the earlier 2022 yr, following beneficial seasonal circumstances in most cattle areas.
“Herd rebuild occurred in Queensland, the biggest contributing state to the Australian cattle inhabitants, the place cattle numbers elevated by 4.2pc for the yr ending June 30 2023 to 13.2 million head.” ABS mentioned.
Beef cattle numbers additionally elevated in New South Wales by 6.2pc to five.9 million and Victoria by 5pc to 2.9 million.
New methodology and sources
In an announcement issued as a part of immediately’s revised figures launch, ABS mentioned on account of the introduction of recent new sources and strategies, each the meat cattle and whole cattle herd estimates for the 2023 yr had been greater than estimates beforehand printed by the ABS utilizing farm surveys which didn’t embody cattle held on smaller farms.
The brand new evaluation methodology is now calculated utilizing an identical strategy to that of the ABS Estimated Resident Inhabitants (ERP), taking closing inventory from the earlier interval, including inhabitants inflows (utilizing present non-ABS information sources to estimate new calves), subtracting inhabitants exits (slaughter, stay exports and on farm deaths), to reach at closing inventory within the present interval, the Bureau mentioned.
The 5 steps are:
- Opening inventory of grownup cattle and calves
- Inflows of recent calves born to breeding cattle
- Compositional flows with present calves rising to grownup cattle
- Outflows which consists of cattle slaughter, exports and on-farm deaths
- Closing inventory which consists grownup cattle and calves and is inclusive of interstate transfers.
All industrial beef (grain and grass fed) and dairy cattle fall inside the scope of the brand new ABS estimates. The inhabitants of calves, feminine cattle and different (male) cattle, kind opening and shutting shares at first and finish of the monetary yr.
The primary factor of this adjustment was to re-calculate the calf inhabitants by aligning it to a degree that might maintain total cattle exits over the long run, the Bureau mentioned. This was achieved by combining the historic ABS agricultural survey feminine cattle estimates with information from ABARES on calves marked (calving charges) and mating charges.
On account of these two changes the meat cattle inhabitants elevated by 4.3 million at 30 June 2019. The desk above reveals beforehand printed cattle estimates and the modelled experimental estimates from 2019 by means of to 2022, for the aim of demonstrating the affect of the modelling strategy in contrast with beforehand printed estimates.
“There are vital variations between the brand new experimental estimates and beforehand printed information. As a result of vital variations, this publication contains adjusted estimates that align with new strategies from 2019 to 2022 to assist customers interpret the 2023 estimates,” it mentioned.
Understanding the accuracy of cattle herd estimates
“The ABS is modernising the way in which we acquire agriculture information with an administrative data-first strategy,” ABS mentioned. “Because of this, the cattle herd estimates are now not calculated utilizing a immediately collected survey, slightly they’ve been calculated utilizing a brand new modelled strategy that makes use of a spread of recent information sources.”
As a part of the modelling course of, the ABS engaged with exterior information suppliers and commonwealth, state and territory agricultural departments to assist make sure the accuracy of estimates by figuring out, investigating, and rectifying unbelievable calf numbers inside the herd, it mentioned.
“The revised estimates are in line with associated information sources on cattle fertility, slaughter and herd age construction. Externally sourced information has been used solely the place accuracy may be moderately measured and verified as a part of the standard assurance processes. Because of this, the estimates may be thought of match to be used,” the Bureau mentioned.
“The experimental estimate of the variety of cattle in Australia gives a extra full estimate of whole cattle in Australia in contrast with previous survey estimates which didn’t embody cattle on smaller farms,” it mentioned.
A crimson meat statistics working group comprised of business and authorities specialists supported the event of the experimental estimates of cattle numbers, it mentioned.
The ABS was persevering with to work with the crimson meat statistics working group to additional refine the estimate of the variety of cattle in Australia because it positive aspects entry to further information sources over the following 18 months.
An analogous course of is getting used to develop an estimate of the variety of sheep in Australia for the Australian Agriculture: Livestock 2023-24 launch.
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