AUSTRALIAN beef exports have formally hit an all-time annual report in 2024, reaching 1.34 million tonnes.
The brand new benchmark (1,343,568 tonnes, to be precise) exceeds the 2 earlier high-points of 1.22m and 1.23m tonnes set in 2015 and 2016 – each pushed squarely by drought-fuelled cattle turnoff on the time.
Serving to safe the brand new report annual cargo quantity was terribly excessive December export commerce, which hit an in-month report of 127,393t. December and January are usually quiet months for Australian beef export exercise, climate typically bears an affect and lots of processors take their annual vacation breaks.
Nevertheless final month proved to be the exception, with December registering the third highest month-to-month quantity all yr, exceeded solely by October (+130,000t) and July (+129,000t).
A number of the uncommon late surge in commerce was resulting from shipments being made prematurely of Safeguard Tariff changes resulting from happen from 1 January – particularly in South Korea and China (see earlier tales) the place market safety tariffs leapt resulting from unusually giant shipments earlier within the yr.
Pushed partially by stronger worldwide demand, the 2024 report export tonnage was up a spectacular 261,000t or 24 p.c on the earlier 2023 yr.
Laying the inspiration
Laying the inspiration for the brand new report has been the completion in nationwide herd rebuild after the 2019-20 drought years, plus long-term enhance in carcase weights.
Whereas there was some proof of destocking occurring in areas of southern Australia in the course of the again half of 2024, northern Australia typically had ample to better-than-good grass-growing situations by way of the yr.
Meat & Livestock Australia in September estimated the nationwide cattle herd measurement at 30.2 million head, however foreshadowed a small 2pc decline this yr to 29.6m, because of the results of herd retraction in areas of southern Australia.
Grownup cattle slaughter final yr reached about 8.2 million head, the very best determine since 2019. Grownup cattle slaughter is predicted to edge larger to eight.38m head, some 200,000 head greater than final yr.
Trying ahead, slaughter will stay comparatively secure in 2025 and 2026 as turn-off continues from a excessive base, MLA suggests. MLA anticipates beef manufacturing this yr (together with each exports and domestically-consumed beef) to achieve 2.55 million tonnes, as worldwide demand for beef stays robust as abroad provide dynamics create alternatives on the worldwide market.
To offer MLA’s analysts their due, their August forecast of complete 2024 beef exports (shipped weight) at 1.359 mt was barely 15,000t or 1pc above the precise outcome.
“The US cattle herd is prone to enter 2025 smaller than it was in 2024, a yr which noticed the US herd at its lowest level in 72 years,” MLA stated in its most up-to-date (September) business projections replace.
“No matter when the US enters a rebuild part, its cattle provide will however stay low as calving charges in the course of the previous 5 years have been beneath common and cattle availability has already begun to say no,” it stated.
“The present beef scarcity within the US will proceed to drive demand for Australian beef globally, each within the US as a direct substitute for home product, but additionally in key north Asian export markets the place Australia and the US compete for market share.”
Carcase weights
Allied with larger charges of grownup cattle slaughter final yr was heavier carcase weights – a long-term business development.
Rising momentum in lotfeeding, and a declining proportion of females within the nationwide kill has pushed common carcase weights larger.
Australian carcase weights have been rising since knowledge assortment started in 1970. Again then, the typical grownup cattle carcase weight was simply 207kg. Within the second quarter of final yr – 54 years later – the typical weight was virtually 100kg heavier at 305kg, representing a 47pc enhance. Enhancements to manufacturing practices, operational selections, export and home retail calls for, investments in genetics, and development in feedlots have all contributed to the advancing weight profile in carcases.
Trying within the shorter time period, within the final ten years carcase weights have lifted from 277kg to 307kg. Weights hit 300kg for the primary time initially of 2018, nonetheless dipped over the next three years resulting from a drought-driven destock which brought on a better portion of feminine turnoff. After this, the herd went into a robust rebuild part, lifting weights again up as extra male cattle (proportionately) had been turned off, and urge for food for lotfeeding grew.
For the reason that tail finish of the nationwide herd rebuild, and thru the present upkeep interval, carcase weights have flattened out as producers flip off extra feminine breeding inventory which had been retained over the rebuild.
Most export markets surge
Most, however not all of Australia’s key beef export markets confirmed robust quantity development in 2024, due each to will increase in Australian manufacturing, and declining charges of manufacturing by our main export competitor, the USA.
That has been mirrored in each direct Australian shipments to the US, in addition to bigger shipments to nations the place US and Australian top quality desk meat compete.
As has been the case since September, 2023, the USA continued to dominate beef commerce out of Australia final yr.
Complete shipments for the 2024 yr reached 394,715 tonnes – near the all-time annual report – and greater than 148,000t or 60pc larger than the earlier calendar yr. December shipments had been significantly excessive, reflecting the deteriorating availability scenario within the US grinding beef market, with tonnage reaching 42,158t for the month. That was second solely in month-to-month statistics final yr to October, when a blistering 45,338t was placed on the water – the very best month-to-month volumes seen since 2014.
Partly because of displacement of US beef, Japan was additionally sharply larger in Australian beef quantity final yr, reaching 247,604t – up virtually 41,000t or 20pc in contrast with the earlier yr.
For related causes South Korea was additionally a lot improved final yr, topping 200,545t by the tip of December – up 11,600t or 6pc on the earlier 2023 yr.
In contrast with earlier years, China continues to battle resulting from tight financial situations, filling fourth place amongst Australia’s beef export prospects final yr accounting for 193,227t of Aussie beef – most of it in frozen kind. That was down virtually 13,000t or 6pc on the earlier yr.
Secondary and rising markets
Secondary and rising markets was one of many key options of Australia’s beef export efficiency throughout 2024, headlined by locations like Indonesia and Canada.
Nearest neighbour Indonesia has exploded as a boxed beef marketplace for Australia throughout 2024, along with, relatively than rather than dwell cattle export commerce.
Complete quantity final yr reached a report 84,178t, up virtually 16,000t or 23pc on the earlier yr.
Smaller Asian prospects like Taiwan, the Philippines and Thailand additionally lifted sharply, rising to 32,600t, 30,800t and 22,300t respectively.
Canada got here out of nowhere final yr to safe 29,300t of Australian beef, up 36pc on the earlier yr.
Commerce into the Center East area continues to be suffering from competitors towards low-cost imports out of South America, with the seven fundamental ME vacation spot nations accounting for 36,631t, nonetheless up 25pc on the earlier yr.
Simply the largest disappointment amongst export prospects final yr was the efficiency of the United Kingdom market, following activation of the brand new Australia-UK Free Commerce Settlement on 1 June, 2023.
Removed from the ‘avalanche’ of Australian beef as predicted by UK farmers against the commerce deal, complete Australian exports final yr reached simply 6296t, rating the UK quantity 14 on Australia’s export buyer base.
Within the absence of any progress in an FTA deal, the encompassing European Union nations took 13,070t final yr, up about 7000t on the earlier 2023 yr.
Australia’s spectacular beef export efficiency final yr deserves recognition, significantly as important challenges within the broader shopper panorama stay. World financial pressures, excessive residing prices and ongoing political and commerce uncertainties proceed to have an effect on shopper confidence and profitability for a lot of provide chain contributors.
- Stand by for a worth comparability for 2024 beef exports in coming weeks, along with this quantity report, as soon as knowledge turns into out there.
- Beef Central’s every day e-mail alerts and common business protection return for the yr subsequent Monday, 13 January.
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