With the primary half of 2024 within the books, it’s value evaluating the primary six months and what to anticipate for the rest of the 12 months.
At mid-year, cattle costs are at all-time file ranges. Fed steers averaged $195.81/cwt., stay foundation, and 850-pound, Med/Massive, No. 1 steers averaged $255.41/cwt. in Oklahoma auctions previous to July 4. Likewise Boning cull cows, common dressing, averaged $143.22/cwt. with excessive dressing Breaker cows averaging $ 154.41/cwt. Steers calves are priced barely beneath the March seasonal peak however averaged $324.53/cwt. earlier than July 4 for 475-pound Med/Massive, No. 1 steers, down from the $350.85/cwt. March common.
Beef manufacturing
Beef manufacturing is down 1.6 % 12 months over 12 months within the first half of the 12 months. Up to now, beef manufacturing is down lower than anticipated. All the discount in beef manufacturing is in nonfed beef, with fed beef manufacturing really 0.7 % greater for the 12 months thus far and nonfed beef manufacturing down 12.5 % 12 months over 12 months within the first half of 2024. Steer slaughter is down 1.7 % and heifer slaughter is down 1.5 % 12 months over 12 months thus far this 12 months, however sharply greater steer and heifer carcass weights are greater than offsetting the modest decreases in slaughter. Carcass weight confirmed little seasonal decline by the primary half of the 12 months and steer carcasses averaged 32 kilos heavier 12 months over 12 months within the second quarter of the 12 months with heifer carcasses 26 kilos heavier previously 12 weeks.
Alternative boxed beef costs are nearly equal to at least one 12 months earlier with a value of $329.96/cwt in early July. Wholesale costs for common grilling steaks are robust at midyear, led by Strip Loins and Prime Sirloin. The discount in nonfed beef manufacturing, mixed with robust floor beef demand has pushed 90 % lean trimmings and subsequent wholesale floor beef costs costs to file ranges. A mixture of 5 kilos of 90 % lean and one pound of fifty % lean leading to an 83.3 % lean floor beef formulation has a file wholesale value of $3.26/lb. in early July.
Feedlot inventories
As of June 1, feedlot inventories had been equal to at least one 12 months in the past. Feedlot inventories have been stubbornly gradual to lower with annual common month-to-month feedlot inventories down simply 2.2 % for the reason that peak stage 21 months in the past in Sept 2022. Feedlot placements are declining however feedlot inventories stay excessive as a consequence of extra days on feed and continued massive heifer slaughter charges. The robust heifer slaughter means that little, if any, heifer retention for herd rebuilding has begun.
File stage costs
Provide fundamentals will proceed to tighten for the rest of the 12 months and past. Beef manufacturing will doubtless end the 12 months down 3.0-3.5 % 12 months over 12 months, lower than beforehand anticipated as a consequence of continued heavy carcass weights. Feedlot inventories and cattle slaughter will proceed to say no, maybe quicker if heifer retention begins in a big manner. Baring outdoors shocks, cattle costs will stay at file ranges and push even greater if herd rebuilding begins within the coming months.
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